Severe Storms Possible Tuesday Night!

Hello everybody. Hope you all had a fantastic and relaxing weekend. As of writing this blog we are currently sitting at 73°F in Austin with a breezy southerly wind gusting to 22 mph. It is definitely muggy out there thanks to those persistent southerly winds off of the Gulf. Temperatures have climbed well into the 80s across south and west Texas this afternoon; however, the clouds over the I-35 corridor are helping to keep temperatures much cooler than they could have been. We can thank a strong cap, or lid, on our atmosphere starting at about 5,000 feet aloft…the cap is a layer of warm, dry air that is blown over the area off of the deserts and plateaus of northern Mexico. This warm, dry air aloft has set up an inversion over the area where temperatures are actually rising with height, whereas typically it is the opposite way around. I know this by looking at something meteorologists call a Skew-T plot. Imagine the Skew-T Plot as a slice into the atmosphere; it shows us how temperature, moisture, and wind change with elevation. According to the latest plot it will take a surface temperature of 96°F to produce enough rising air to break the cap.

If you want to learn more about the CAP click HERE

Here’s the latest Skew-T Plot out of Del Rio, TX:

 The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large part of the southern and central plains under a SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Tuesday/Tuesday Night. Severe storms are likely to develop in the areas shaded in yellow and produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

For us here in central Texas, Tuesday will start off overcast, mild, muggy, and breezy with areas of drizzle possible. Temperatures will be in the 60s area wide. By afternoon, the west Texas Dry Line (Boundary separating dry desert air to the west of it from warm, humid air to the east of it) will approach the western Hill Country, clouds look to erode earlier and more efficiently on Tuesday thanks to warm southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft. Afternoon highs will climb well into the 80s across the area. A strong cap will be in place over the area tomorrow, which will inhibit thunderstorm development, however, if a developing storm is able to break the cap, it would turn severe quickly with very large hail and damaging winds because the amount of instability in our atmosphere will be extremely high tomorrow as indicated by the forecast CAPE values well above 2,000 for all of central Texas.

Forecast CAPE Values for 6 p.m. Tuesday Evening: VERY HIGH

The most likely place for storms to develop during the afternoon tomorrow is well west of the Interstate 35 corridor near the dry line. By tomorrow night, a dry line/cold front combination will approach the area from the north and west. Ahead of those boundaries the warm, muggy air over central Texas will be forced to rise and condense into towering cumulus clouds. Those clouds will eventually grow to become a line of strong to severe storms which will extend from Oklahoma all the way south into central Texas late tomorrow night. The line of storms will form west of central Texas and march east during the overnight hours towards and eventually through the I-35 corridor. The main threats from the storms that develop will be very large hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes. The best chance for large hail looks to be west of Austin across the Hill Country, however, some medium to large sized hail along with gusty outflow winds are definitely a possibility here in Austin during the early morning hours of Wednesday. The front will push through all of central Texas by midday Wednesday with gusty and chilly northerly winds moving in behind it. Highs will only make the 50s and 60s across the area on Wednesday with temps falling into the 40s Wednesday night.

Forecast Temperatures for 3 p.m. Tuesday: How's that for a temperature difference! South Texas will climb well into the 90s to lower 100s tomorrow!

The Storm Prediction Center's SREF Model is forecasting a 70% chance for showers and storms up and down the I-35 corridor early Wednesday morning; This same model is predicting a 30-40% chance for storms that develop in central Texas to become severe tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning.

The latest High Resolution Model out of Texas Tech University shows a skinny, but strong line of storms pushing through much of north and central Texas early Wednesday morning. In this type of situation, the main threats from the storms will be small to medium sized hail and gusty winds.

Latest high resolution rainfall accumulation models are showing generally less than a half of an inch of rain for most of the area, however, isolated spots may receive as much as an inch of rainfall.