Surface high pressure has shifted off to the east of central Texas allowing for south southeasterly winds to return to the area. These southeasterly winds will increase the moisture levels across the area and combine with upper level disturbances moving from west to east across central Texas to bring us a chance for showers and thunderstorms this week.
Our first shot at rain arrives Monday morning. However, the chance for rain tomorrow is well below 20% across the area tomorrow. Latest high resolution forecast models show some possible LIGHT rain showers moving across the area early Monday, however, other forecast models leave us high and dry.
As a Pacific Frontal Boundary moves toward the area, and eventually through the area on Thursday, our chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to as high as 40% for Wednesday. The NAM model shows the heaviest precipitation falling across north Texas.
As a strong, upper level storm system and its associated cold front approach the area late next weekend, the chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to go up across the area. We may see a line of showers and storms (some possibly strong or severe) move through the area next Sunday. Way too far out to estimate how much rainfall we will see, however, long range forecast models have been consistently forecasting a rainfall event across the area.
Long range models continue to fluctuate on the possibility of a strong blast of Arctic Air towards the middle of February. I will continue to analyze models over the coming days and weeks for consistency. Meaning, if the models continually forecast cold air for Texas, the chance of it actually happening will be much greater.
Keep your fingers crossed that we see some rainfall because much of Texas, and all of central Texas, continue to suffer through moderate to severe drought conditions. Nearly 90% of the state of Texas is in drought.
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