Weather Set Up
A potent and far southward-digging upper level storm system (trough of low pressure) and its attendant surface cold front will approach and move across the state of Texas on Friday. Ahead of this strong storm system, strong south southeasterly winds have developed. Those winds off of the Gulf of Mexico are pumping in lots of Gulf of Mexico moisture for the approaching storm system to work with to generate thunderstorms, some of which are likely to be strong/severe, Friday afternoon/evening/night across central, south central, north, southeast and east Texas.
Threat Level by City
Austin Threat Level: Enhanced
San Antonio Threat Level: Slight
Houston Threat Level: Enhanced
Dallas/Fort Worth Threat
Level: Enhanced
Central Texas Severe Outlook
Graphic courtesy of Meteorologist Avery Tomasco at CBS Austin News
Texas Severe Outlook
What does an enhanced
risk of severe storms mean? Let’s take a look – plus I've added our threat levels for Friday's forecast
Numerous severe storms possible.
The severe storms that develop will be more persistent and/or widespread and a
few may be intense
A few tornadoes possible – LOW THREAT
Several reports of wind damage –
MODERATE THREAT
Damaging hail 1-2 inches in
diameter – LOW THREAT
***Widespread severe weather is NOT expected, however, there is the potential for some areas to receive some severe weather
Friday Weather Timeline
As it looks right now,
passing showers and perhaps a thundershower will be possible Friday morning through
early afternoon across central Texas (I think a lot of that activity will be limited by a layer of warmer air aloft) with the more organized activity developing
late afternoon into Friday evening along and just west of the I-35 corridor as
the main upper level energy and a cold front begin to move in. Based on the latest
high resolution forecast model data, it appears that there is the potential for a rapidly developing
squall line (line of thunderstorms) to initiate along and possibly just west of
the I-35 corridor between 4-8 p.m. CST Friday evening. The greatest severe
threat from these developing storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60-75 mph. Once this line of storms initiates, it
will continue to march east with the cold front and upper level storm system. The severe threat looks to ramp up once the line of storms pushes east of the I-35 corridor.
Tornadoes??
There is a low-end tornado threat across the area tomorrow evening, however, the best dynamics for tornadoes appears to remain east and especially well to the northeast of the I-35 corridor into east Texas and northeast Texas (red shaded area on the Texas map above). Damaging wind gusts still appear to be the biggest threat from storms that develop locally. Additionally, all storms that develop will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.
There is a low-end tornado threat across the area tomorrow evening, however, the best dynamics for tornadoes appears to remain east and especially well to the northeast of the I-35 corridor into east Texas and northeast Texas (red shaded area on the Texas map above). Damaging wind gusts still appear to be the biggest threat from storms that develop locally. Additionally, all storms that develop will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.
I do need to mention that
if the forecast line of storms remains broken (rain free areas in between the
forecast line of storms) and if isolated storms are able to develop ahead of
the forecast line of storms, those discrete thunderstorm cells will have the
best potential to rotate and perhaps produce a tornado. This will need to be
watched closely and it is by no means likely or a sure thing.
Along with all that I’ve
mentioned above, it’s possible that we only see garden variety showers and
storms in Austin with the worst of the weather potentially staying off to our east.
Rainfall Accumulation
A quick 0.5-1.5 inches of rain will be possible...some may receive more and some may receive less. Rainfall is very welcome at this time and flash flooding does NOT look to be an issue on Friday.
Rainfall Accumulation
A quick 0.5-1.5 inches of rain will be possible...some may receive more and some may receive less. Rainfall is very welcome at this time and flash flooding does NOT look to be an issue on Friday.
With all
that noted, we will all need to remain weather aware Friday afternoon/evening.
With the potential for severe weather, it is always a good idea to turn on
emergency alert notifications on your cell phone.
How to enable emergency alerts on iPhone
Open settings à notifications à scroll down to the
bottom of notifications tab to where it says “Government Alerts” and turn on “Emergency
Alerts”
Should and if a tornado or
flash flood warning were to be issued, you would receive notification on your
phone
What to Expect behind
the Storms & the Weekend
Behind the line of storms,
lingering showers and thundershowers may persist for 2-3 hours before
conditions rapidly clear from west to east behind the storm system as a much
drier and cooler air mass infiltrates the region.
Highs Saturday despite a
sunny sky will only manage the 50s to lower 60s (near normal for this time of
year) with a breezy northwest wind. As winds relax Saturday evening under a
clear sky, temperatures will plummet into the 20s to middle 30s across the area
by early Sunday morning. Low-lying, out-lying locations will likely receive a
freeze with areas like downtown Austin staying a few degrees above 32°F.
Sunny and near perfect
conditions expected for your Sunday with highs rebounding into the lower 60s
under a mainly sunny sky.
