First Day of Winter

Forecast Discussion

Near Record Warmth Today

Despite the fact that winter officially arrived at 10:28 a.m. CST this morning, afternoon high temperatures on this first day of winter topped out just below record highs. Camp Mabry’s high coming in at an astoundingly balmy 79°F (record high 81°F set back in 1970) and the airport topped out at 78°F (record high 81°F set back in 1970). The average or “normal” high for this time of year should be closer to 62°F. Breezy south southwesterly winds at the surface, sunshine, and southwesterly winds above the surface allowed for the spike in temperatures today.

Cold Front Arrives Tomorrow (Friday) with Rain and Sharply Colder Temperatures

The first of two Canadian cold fronts is set to arrive in Austin Friday morning between 9-noon. As of 6:00 p.m. CST Thursday evening, the leading edge of the cold front is just approaching Lubbock and the temperature in Amarillo has already dropped to 32°F. As the upper level storm system associated with this surface frontal system approaches the area late tonight, areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms have the potential to develop and possibly become more widespread as the cold front gets closer to the area during the early to mid-morning hours. Those locations that receive rain will likely receive somewhere between 0.10 to as much as 0.50 inches of rain. This rainfall event does not look to be as heavy as the rains we experienced across the area late Monday and Tuesday of this week.

6 P.M. CST Thursday Evening Temperature Map

With that being mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a very low end risk category for severe weather on Friday (especially for areas east and southeast of the I-35 corridor saying this, “A marginal threat for a severe storm or two may exist across central/eastern Texas, primarily during the day.” Area shaded in dark green on map below under the marginal risk for severe weather on Friday (very slim chance). 

If the cold front moves through earlier in the day, the threat of severe weather/strong storms will be near zero…if the cold front decides to slow down a bit and let the air mass ahead of it heat up and destabilize, then there is a SLIGHTLY better chance for an isolated strong/severe storm. I’m thinking the front moves through early enough to only generate some general rain shower activity with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall from time to time. Some of the models keep things fairly dry, others continue to indicate rain is going to fall.

Despite the rain and the storms, a noticeable drop in temperatures will be felt behind the front with temperatures dropping from the 60s and 70s ahead of the front into the 40s and 50s (some spots across the northern and western Hill Country may spend quite a bit of the day in the 30s) behind it. You’ll definitely want to leave the house in the morning with a rain jacket/winter coat. Everybody drops into the upper 30s and lower 40s Friday night/Saturday morning. No wintry precipitation is expected!

Christmas Weekend and Christmas Day

Skies will clear out for the most part on Saturday as high pressure builds into the area from the west behind Friday’s cold front/storm system. Sunshine will help highs climb into the 50s to near 60°F across the area (it will be a nice, albeit cool sort of day). Lows dip into the 30s Saturday night (above freezing for most of the area with the exception of some out-lying, low-lying, typically colder locations).

Christmas Eve Cold Front & Christmas Day

A reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian Air will move in on Christmas Eve with highs likely in the 50s and setting stage for a near area wide freeze Christmas morning…the middle of Austin may stay a few degrees above the freezing mark, but out-lying, low-lying locations should receive a freeze. Highs on Christmas Day under a mainly sunny sky should manage to rebound into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. Perfect for Christmas!