Colder Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion

This November will likely go down as the third warmest November in Austin's recorded weather history. A La Niña weather pattern currently in place is largely to blame for the warmer and drier than normal conditions this fall. La Niña occurs when cooler than normal waters are present in the Equatorial Pacific. Fluctuations in water temperature in that region of the Earth play a significant role in weather patterns across the globe. La Niña typically brings Texas warmer and drier weather during the fall/winter, but that doesn't mean we will not see any cold weather. In fact, La Niña's are known to bring severe, but short-lived cold snaps to Texas.

Drought Returning

The lack of rainfall across the state, despite the devastating rains brought to the area from Harvey, has led to drought development across a large portion of the state. Areas shaded in tan on the map below are considered to be in a "moderate" drought, areas in yellow are considered "abnormally dry," and areas in orange are considered to be in a "severe" drought.

Colder Days Ahead

Looking ahead, major forecast models are indicating a pattern shift that will unlock cold Polar and Arctic Air and send it south into the lower 48 next week. That pattern shift can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks.

Valid December 6-10th the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting "colder than normal" conditions across the Lone Star State and much of the eastern half of the United States and "above normal precipitation" for the Northeast, East Coast, Southeast and South Central Plains. (see graphics below).

Temperature:

Precipitation:

Highs in central Texas will continue in the 70s through Monday of next week, before colder air begins to move into the area sometime Tuesday of next week. Highs a couple of days next week are likely to only be in the 40s/50s with overnight lows in the 30s. Too soon to say just how cold it's going to get, but colder weather is on the way. Along with the forecast cold temperatures, rain chances look to sneak into the forecast as well for next week. Too soon to say how much rain we are going to see, but it's nice to see rainfall chances back in the forecast.