Forecast
Discussion
We
officially topped out at 103°F Thursday afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry and
101°F at the airport. Today makes our 24th day of triple digit heat
in Austin for 2017 and our 10th day in a row of 100°+ heat. We’ve
got two more really hot days on tap before a gradual weather pattern change
occurs for the second half of the weekend and into next week.
The hottest
official temperature recorded in Austin so far this year has been 104°F set
back on June 23rd and July 21st (both reached at Camp
Mabry). We have a very good chance of hitting 104°F again in Austin tomorrow
(Friday) and an even better chance of exceeding 104°F on Saturday as the relentless
summer heat builds more ahead of an approaching weak late July cool front. The
only sliver of good news is that slightly drier afternoon air is helping to
keep heat indices (feels like temperatures) from climbing to crazy high levels.
Friday
Forecast High
(Austin/Camp Mabry): 104°F (record high = 105°F set back in 1923)
Saturday
Forecast High
(Austin/Camp Mabry): 105°F (record high = 105°F set back in 1923)
Saturday's Forecast Highs (High Resolution North American Model)
Late
Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances
A weak
frontal boundary in the area combined with weak upper air disturbances may
allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop around the area
on Sunday and Monday. While severe weather is not expected, summertime
thunderstorms still pose a hazard with deadly cloud to ground lightning, brief
heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.
Medium
to Long Range Outlook
The Climate
Prediction Center in their 6-10 day outlook is continuing to indicate below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for Texas August 2-6 and
potentially beyond. We will wait to see if those long range forecasts verify.
Medium to long range forecast models are hinting that the big dome of high
pressure that has been controlling our weather for the past several weeks will
begin to shift west and allow for low pressure to take its place. Low pressure
promotes rising air which promotes the development of clouds and hopefully beneficial
rains. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
Texas
Drought Update
Moderate to
severe drought conditions have returned to central and south central Texas as
noted on the Drought Monitor’s latest update (see below)
