Storms Possible Tonight

Good Afternoon Folks…

Breezy southerly winds continuing to pump in plentiful amounts of Gulf moisture into central and south central Texas ahead of our next approaching upper level storm system and its associated surface cold front.

Returning moisture combined with an approaching upper level disturbance (pocket of cold air aloft) will trigger a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area late this evening into early Thursday morning.

With this in mind, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed ALL of central and south central Texas (including the Austin/San Antonio Metro Areas) under a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather tonight (large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats). A marginal risk is the lowest risk of severe weather possible, slight risk of severe weather comes into play from Waco north into the Great Plains, those areas shaded in yellow will have a better chance of seeing severe weather.

Dark Green = Marginal Risk

Yellow = Slight Risk

The Storm Prediction Center defines a MARGINAL RISK as such:

“Isolated severe thunderstorms possible that will be limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity…Thunderstorm winds of 40-60 mph possible, hail up to 1” in diameter possible, LOW tornado risk”

Storm Timeline:

The cold front, or lifting mechanism for the showers/storms will approach the northwestern Hill Country after 9 p.m. and approach the I-35 corridor after 11 p.m. and areas east of I-35 after midnight. Storms will be possible along and just behind the frontal boundary.

Storms should be long gone by sunrise Thursday as breezy northerly winds transport cooler and drier air into the area.

Forecast High Resolution Radar for midnight Thursday:

Image above courtesy of College of DuPage

Cooler/Breezy Conditions Thursday behind Cold Front:

Highs on Thursday only forecast to reach the upper 60s/lower 70s area wide with a breezy north wind gusting 20-30 mph…temperatures drop into the 40s area wide Thursday night under a clear sky as winds relax.

Tuesday Morning Update

…Round #1 moving out, Round #2 arrives late evening, overnight…

Good news, the TORNADO WATCH has been allowed to expire for the Travis, Williamson, Hays, Burnet, Llano, Blanco, Bastrop, Caldwell, and Lee Counties.

Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1 p.m. CST for north central Texas and the Brazos Valley (College Station), however, the risk of severe weather is quickly decreasing across central and south central Texas for the remainder of the morning and early afternoon hours as the bulk of the thunderstorms that grazed south central Texas this morning are beginning to push off to our north and east.

Here’s a look at the newly reconfigured Tornado Watch:

***Areas north of Williamson County and east to College Station and the northern suburbs of the Houston Metro Area will need to stay alert for the possibility of severe weather through the early afternoon hours***

Important:

Please do NOT let this morning’s shower and thunderstorm activity fool you. This was just round #1. The atmosphere over central Texas is becoming increasingly unstable, highs this afternoon will easily climb into the 80s this afternoon.

Round #2 will kick up late this afternoon and persist through early Wednesday morning. Right now I’m thinking the bulk of the heavy weather with embedded severe potential will affect central Texas between 10 p.m. tonight through 6 a.m. Wednesday morning. All modes of severe weather will be possible tonight (large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes).

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has areas from Austin south and east to the coast under an “ENHANCED” risk area for severe weather tonight, and a “SLIGHT” risk for areas north and west of Austin

Check out the chart below to understand the differences between an enhanced risk of severe weather and a slight risk

Let’s remain weather aware!!!

***The most important thing you can do is be situationally aware of your surroundings and what is going on. Please stay tuned to media outlets and my email updates through the day and into the nighttime hours…please find a way to receive severe weather alerts…now would be a good time to turn on those automated weather alerts on your phone, they may end up saving your life!***

Severe Weather Threat Today/Tomorrow

Forecast Discussion
A potent and dynamic upper level Pacific storm system digging south along the west coast of the United States will continue to track off to the south and east into northern Mexico and SLOWLY across the state of Texas through the end of the work week.

Dynamic upper level lift ahead of this approaching system coupled with strong upper level winds and plentiful amounts of rich Gulf moisture will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Storms that develop today, tonight, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday will have the potential to become severe producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. 

Remember, a thunderstorm is considered to be severe if it is producing hail of 1" in diameter or greater, and/or thunderstorm (convective) wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado (visually confirmed or radar indicated). Storms that produce severe weather are known as super cells. Super cells are different from general thunderstorms because they last for a much longer period of time and can produce severe weather (hail, high winds, tornadoes) for a long period of time.

As of right now, the greatest and most widespread risk of severe weather for central and south central Texas looks to come late Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday morning, however, there is a risk for severe weather today (Monday), tonight, and early Tuesday morning.

Today/Tonight's Severe Risk Area
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a large area of Oklahoma and Texas (including central Texas) under the "SLIGHT" risk category for severe weather today/tonight. Areas within the yellow shaded area have a 15% chance within 25 miles of any chosen point in the slight risk area of receiving severe weather.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night's Severe Risk Area
Severe weather chances increase across central/south central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our region into the "ENHANCED" risk category (orange shaded area) for severe weather...meaning there is a 30% chance within 25 miles of any chosen point in the orange shaded area of receiving severe weather. All areas surrounding the enhanced risk area are under the slight risk category for severe weather.

The maps above are available for your viewing pleasure anytime on the Storm Prediction Center's website...click HERE to access it.


Flooding Risk
In addition to the risk of potential severe weather over the coming days, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across the region...this is something that will need to be monitored closely. A great way to track and monitor which low-water crossings are open/closed is using the ATXfloods website. Click HERE to access it. Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation
On average we are looking to receive 1-3 inches of rain with this storm system, however, some locations may end up receiving upwards of 4-5 inches (especially along and east of the IH-35 corridor)...map below is a look at forecast rainfall accumulation across the lower 48 through Saturday courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center