Heavy Rain & Cold on the way!

First off, I would like to wish each and every one of you a Happy Thanksgiving...I hope it is a beautiful day for all. Enjoy and cherish all that you are blessed with.

Forecast Discussion:

Good Wednesday afternoon everybody. Another heavy rainfall event looks to be coming together to bring much of the state widespread rainfall beginning tomorrow and persisting through the weekend. This type of weather set-up has the potential to produce flash flooding across the region. Please take that into consideration if you will be doing any traveling across the state this upcoming holiday weekend. It’s important to remember this slogan from the National Weather Service, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN if you come across a flooded roadway.

>>>Plentiful amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture combined with Pacific moisture and moisture from now MAJOR Category 3 Hurricane Sandra (max. sustained winds of 120 mph) in the eastern Pacific will spread over Texas in the coming days. Plentiful moisture combined with the upper level dynamics of a large area of upper level low pressure over the western United States and a strong surface cold front will work together to efficiently wring out that moisture over Texas. The mid and upper level Pacific moisture streaming over the area, combined with the upper level dynamics of Hurricane Sandra, make the rain-making process over our area more efficient. The big dip in the jet stream over the western United States is effectively pulling that Pacific and Gulf moisture into the area.

The latest Infrared Satellite Imagery of Hurricane Sandra (courtesy of SSEC Real Earth)

 

>>>I’m thinking 1-4 inches of rainfall is likely over south central Texas between now and Sunday, with some isolated locations receiving upwards of 6 inches.

>>>Warm and muggy through Friday afternoon for much of south central Texas with temperatures in the 70s

>>>BIG Cold Front arrives Friday afternoon between 2-5 p.m. Temperatures take a nosedive behind the front from the 70s into the 40s on a gusty north wind…check out the forecast surface temperature map for 3 p.m. Friday afternoon (you don’t have to be a meteorologist to find this front…wow!)

 

Here's a closer look at south central Texas (courtesy of hazwx.com)...Friday's front is going to bring a 30+ degree drop in temperatures! 

 
 The National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office has issued a HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK in anticipation of this event (see below):

This hazardous weather outlook is for south central Texas

Day one…today and tonight…

>NO hazardous weather is expected for today (Wednesday) or tonight

Days two through seven…Thursday through Tuesday

>Thursday night through Saturday…abundant moisture will interact with a cold front over Texas…resulting in a threat for locally heavy rainfall. Current projections are for the cold front to move into central Texas Friday afternoon and push into south Texas Friday night. Widespread rains are expected on both sides of the front…with a chance for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding late Thursday night through Saturday.

Rainfall Totals Thursday through Sunday should average between 1 and 3 inches…with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible…especially over central Texas and the Hill Country.

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation between now and early Monday morning across the lower 48 courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center:

Notice the bulls-eye of potentially very heavy rainfall over north Texas and southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas…that region could see upwards of 5-8+ inches of rain over the coming days