Forecast Discussion:
Good
Wednesday evening everybody. Saturated ground, added cloud cover, and a real
lack of any significant, stubborn upper level high pressure systems has given
us a fairly mild summer across the area so far. We can thank El Niño for all of
that. The highest temperature we have seen this year here in Austin is 95°F. A stubborn early July stationary cold front that has been parked to our
northwest for the past several days now in association with a stagnant upper
level trough, or dip, in jet stream winds across the western plains has brought
several rounds of flooding showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Texas
Big Country, north and northwestern portions of central Texas as well as
southern and central Oklahoma. Abilene received a record-shattering 8.26
inches of rain yesterday which led to flash flooding across a large portion of
the Big Country/West Texas. Areas north of the Hill Country have received a
widespread 2-10 inches over the past week. That is great news for Lake
Buchanan, because a good majority of that runoff will find its way into Lake
Buchanan. The LCRA (Lower Colorado River Authority) is estimating Lake Buchanan to rise as much as 5-6 feet over
the coming days. Lake Buchanan is still only considered to be around 52% full.
Rainfall Accumulation Map (South Central U.S. past week)
In
addition to creating those flooding rains across portions of the state, lower
pressure associated with the frontal boundary/upper level trough to our north
and higher pressure parked off to our east has really made a good chunk of
Texas a wind tunnel over the past several days. Those gusty and persistent
southerly winds are more reminiscent of the spring months. As that trough of
lower pressure and the stationary cool front retreat north and out of the state
and higher pressure begins to take charge of our weather pattern from the east,
I’m expecting winds to really begin to lighten up across the area, however,
they will maintain direction out of the south making sure to keep that sticky
Gulf air in place. As high pressure moves overhead this weekend into early next
week, our highs will accordingly climb across the area from the upper 80s and
lower 90s into the lower to middle 90s across the area…a few locations may even
challenge the upper 90s early next week, however, that should be the exception
and not the majority. Regardless of what the actual air temperature is, the
combination of Gulf of Mexico moisture and heat will promote heat indices above
100°F across the region. Looking ahead into the middle/end of next week (which
may I remind you is similar to an eternity in weather forecasting) is hinting at
some rainfall chances returning to the area as models are painting an upper
level trough of low pressure approaching the state from the east and northeast.
With all of this mentioned, look for a warming trend over the coming days as we
settle into what is typically a drier time of year for us here in central
Texas. The nice thing is, I’m keeping triple digit temperatures out of the
forecast for now; the ground is just still too saturated to get that kind of
heat.
GFS Forecast Model showing ridge of high pressure over Texas this weekend:
Heat Safety Tips: HEAT is the #1 weather-related killer
Saharan Dust:
Let me add
one more thing to the pot, African Dust…it has been with us on and off for the
past several weeks now and really looks to continue to be with us (on and on
and off basis) over the next couple of weeks…thankfully it doesn’t have much of
an impact on most folks, however, younger children, the elderly, and those
sensitive to dusts/allergens need to limit their time outdoors on particularly
dusty/hazy days. This is a great source to get the very latest air quality
forecasts for the state of Texas. Click HERE to be redirected to that website
(it will open in a new tab). A lot of people don’t believe that dust can travel
so far, however, it can and it does…for more information on how it does so make
sure to check out an older blog post I wrote on African Dust and how it affects
us here in Texas, by clicking HERE.
Hazy Austin Skyline
Photo by Ralph Barrera/Austin American-Statesman
