July Cold Front

Hello everybody and thank you for checking out my blog. After two consecutive days of triple digit heat, some temporary relief is on the way. A strong July Cold Front, currently pushing into north Texas at this time will stall out over central Texas during the day on Tuesday. While the front will not provide us much in the way of a cool down, it will be the focal point for showers and storms to flare up during the afternoon and evening hours. Converging winds along the frontal boundary allow for the warm, moist air in place over central Texas to rise and in turn produce storms. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are highly dependent on just how much sun we see and where/when storms begin to erupt. There is a 50% chance for storms on Tuesday. Given atmospheric and surface conditions, storms that develop will have the potential to become quite strong with gusty winds, heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning. Highs will likely make the mid and upper 90s briefly Tuesday afternoon before storms develop and cool areas into the 70s and 80s thanks to cooling thunderstorm outflow winds. Those outflow winds in turn help other storms to develop; you can think of outflow winds/boundaries as mini cool fronts.

Latest Surface Analysis showing the frontal boundary (blue line with southward facing triangles) pushing through southern Oklahoma:

Unfortunately for us here in central Texas, none of the cool, dry air behind the front will make it here to Texas, however, areas as far south as the southeastern United States will get an early taste of Fall in July

Forecast Highs across lower 48 on Tuesday, check out all of those 70s on the map! Much of the midwest and central plains will be waking up to temperatures in the 40s and 50s Tuesday morning. Doesn't that sound refreshing!!

Temperatures will be running a good 5 to as much as 25 degrees below normal for this time of year behind this unusually strong July Cold Front:

High pressure centered off to our west over the desert southwest and a large trough (elongated) area of low pressure (responsible for the rare July Cool Blast) to our northeast will keep a northwesterly wind flow over much of Texas through the end of the week. As the frontal boundary begins to drift back north as a warm front by Wednesday and Thursday and upper level disturbances approach from the northwest, it is not out of the question for large storm clusters to develop over north and northwest Texas and track south southeast into central Texas. These storm clusters are known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). An MCS is basically a large cluster of storms that has the potential to travel for long distances and provide heavy rain and possible severe weather over large areas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of northwest Texas, including the city of Lubbock, under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Wednesday [see image below]...storms that develop in that area will have the potential to merge into a complex of storms and affect us here in central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday and again on Thursday into Friday. We will have to wait and see how all of this plays out.

Given our chances for showers and storms over the coming days, highs will remain below the triple digits through the end of the work week. 

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting anywhere from 1/2 an inch to as much as 2 inches of rain to fall across portions of central Texas over the next five days. Keep your fingers crossed as we can use every drop we can get. Heaviest rains are likely to fall well north and northeast of central Texas where this particular forecast is calling for as much of seven inches of rain to fall over southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas over the next five days. 

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