April Weather & Drought Update

Hello everybody! What a beautiful past couple of days it has been, minus the gusty winds and the loads of pollen in the air. We officially topped out at 87ºF this afternoon at Camp Mabry and 86ºF at the airport. Southerly winds will ease a bit overnight, however, they will stay breezy and ensure widespread clouds late tonight into Friday morning. Those clouds will gradually break up by Friday afternoon and allow for a partly sunny, breezy, and more humid day with highs topping out in the mid 80s. Persistent southerly flow off of the Gulf will ensure a warm, breezy, and humid weekend with cloudy/drizzly mornings and partly sunny afternoons. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.

Risk Area for Severe Weather on Sunday (RED shaded area):
CLICK HERE TO VIEW CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS, WATCHES, AND MUCH MORE!

An upper level disturbance will push the west Texas Dry Line (the boundary that separates dry desert air from humid Gulf air) into the far western Hill Country Sunday afternoon. This boundary will be the focus for a storm or two to develop late Sunday afternoon. Although the storms are likely to be isolated in nature, they have the potential to become severe in a hurry with large damaging hail and strong gusty winds. The best chance for severe weather on Sunday will be north and east of Central Texas as the heart of the disturbance will pass just north of us. Once the disturbance passes to our east, it will open the door for a strong cold front to blast through the area late Sunday into early Monday. There is another chance for storms along the front late Sunday into early Monday morning.

Sunday's Upper Level Disturbance:

Behind the front on Monday, it will be considerably cooler and drier across the area as strong northerly winds will only allow for highs in the 60s and lower 70s on Monday. Lows Monday night will drop into the 30s and 40s! Our next chance for storms will arrive Thursday of next week.

Monday's Cold Front (check out that temperature difference!):
40s & 50s behind the front, 70s ahead of the front!

With the lack of rainfall around here, the drought is continuing to worsen. Here's the latest from the U.S. Drought Monitor:

• The Hill Country has dropped back into EXTREME drought conditions, the second-to-worst drought category
• The remainder of central Texas, including the Austin Metro Area, is experiencing MODERATE drought conditions. 
• According to the LCRA, both Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis are only 37% full
• Click HERE to visit LCRA's Drought Page
• Click HERE to visit the U.S. Drought Monitor's Website
• Click HERE to view the devastating effects of the drought on Lake Travis

Lake Travis March 2014

PHOTO COURTESY OF THE LCRA

Latest Drought Monitor for the state of Texas:

64% of the state is currently in a drought and nearly 30% of the state is in the EXTREME and EXCEPTIONAL drought categories.

Lots of people have been asking me about our upcoming summer. If we do not receive a lot of good beneficial rainfall this spring, it is likely to be another scorchingly hot summer. The less moisture we have in the ground, the faster it heats up around here. El Niño is forecast to return come Fall/Winter of 2014-15, however, that is a long way's off and things may change. El Niño brings brings us (Texas) cooler & wetter than normal conditions. La Niña brings us warmer and drier than normal conditions.

The latest 3 Month Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting WARMER than normal weather for a large section of the western and southern United States.