Friday, February 21, 2014

Winter is NOT over yet!

TGIF Everybody! I hope you are all having a wonderful day. The weather is absolutely fantastic today behind yesterday's cool front. Currently sitting in the 60s across all of central Texas under a mostly sunny sky.

Temperature Anomaly for next Wednesday. This map shows departure from normal "average" temperature for the United States. This forecast model is forecasting temps to be some 20 to 30 degrees below normal across Texas next Wednesday. Normal highs for this time of year are in the middle to upper 60s. As you can see, much of the U.S. will be shivering again by the middle to end of next week. 


Strong westerly winds aloft (around 18,000 feet above us) will ensure a warm and quiet weather pattern as well as a warming trend. After a cool night tonight with lows dipping into the upper 40s southerly winds will really help to increase both the humidity and the temperature as we get into the weekend. Highs Saturday expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80°F area wide under a partly sunny sky. Thanks to those southerly winds, widespread clouds and patchy areas of drizzle will move in late Saturday and persist through Sunday morning before clouds break up Saturday afternoon and push highs into the lower 80s across the area. A brief cool down is possible on Monday behind a weak cool front, however, highs are still likely to be in the 70s. Highs climb well into the 70s and 80s across much of central and south Texas on Tuesday ahead of an Arctic Cold Front that will blast through the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. We will wake up to temperatures in the mid and upper 30s next Wednesday with highs struggling to make the mid 40s on a gusty north wind. Latest forecast model guidance suggests some very light rain is possible behind the front on Wednesday as warm, moist air is forced to ride up and over the cold, dense Arctic Air at the surface. This pattern is called overrunning. It is not out of the question to see some sleet pellets mixed in with the light rain Wednesday afternoon. Keep in mind, this is a way's out and the forecast is likely to change several times in the coming days. 

Widespread freeze is beginning to look likely early Thursday morning before highs briefly rebound into the 50s Thursday afternoon. Increasing clouds and a chance for rain next Friday will likely keep highs in the 40s with lows in the 30s (we should remain above freezing during this time).

Deep blue represents areas at or below freezing next Thursday morning:



Very cold will build across northwest Canada and Alaska over the coming days and that air will push south and drop temperatures well below average across much of the lower 48. The pink and white temperature shading represents frigid Arctic Air. Extreme bright white represents temperatures about 30 degrees BELOW ZERO!