Roller Coaster Weather

Hello everybody! I hope you are all having a great weekend. I apologize as I realize it has been quite a while since I have posted, however, you can always stay up to date with the forecast on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center. Just click on the name of my page and you will be able to directly access it. You don't need to have a Facebook account to view the page.

Okay, let's get right to it as there is quite a bit to talk about over the next several days. After an icy and cold day yesterday with temperatures in the 30s to 40 degrees across the area we managed to climb to 70ºF Saturday afternoon at Camp Mabry which is 8 degrees ABOVE NORMAL for this time of year. We are going to be closer to 15 degrees above normal on Sunday with warm, breezy, southwesterly winds ahead of a powerful Arctic Front that will blast through the area early Monday morning and quickly put an end to our spring-like weather on Sunday. Latest forecast models push all of central Texas into the 70s Sunday afternoon. We should top out in the middle 70s here in Austin, however, some spots may climb into the upper 70s (especially south and west of Austin) where areas along the Texas-Mexico Border will likely climb into the lower 80s! Southwesterly winds are forced to sink and compress as they drop in elevation off of the Mexican Plateau. When air is compressed it warms up. With that being mentioned, get ready for a sunny, warm, spring-like day on Sunday.

FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY (4km NAM MODEL):
Winds: SW at 10-20 mph

Old Man Winter will quickly put an end to spring by Monday morning with the arrival of a powerful Arctic Cold Front that will really kick up the winds across the area. Especially for areas along and east of the Balcones Escarpment (basically along and east of the I-35 corridor). The National Weather Service has already mentioned that they are likely to issue a WIND ADVISORY for much of the area on Monday as north winds will be sustained at 20-30 mph for a good portion of the morning and afternoon hours with gusts in the 35-40 mph range likely.

FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
TUESDAY MORNING (4KM NAM MODEL)

Latest forecast models show the Arctic Front pushing through the area before daybreak Monday. Temperatures look to hold steady in the 40s for much of the day Monday before plummeting into the 30s by late afternoon and then finally into the 20s late Monday into early Tuesday morning.

FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
4 KM NAM MODEL  

Just as temperatures drop below freezing late Monday night a cut-off low (disturbance) will be moving towards Texas out of northern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITION OF CUT-OFF LOW
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESAY: (4KM NAM MODEL)

That disturbance will help to provide lift in the atmosphere and will cause light showers to develop across the region (especially for Austin and areas south). Gulf Moisture will be lifted up and over the cold, dense Arctic Air at the surface and create cloudy skies across the area. With temperatures below freezing at the surface, those showers will likely come down in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and possibly snow). This is not a sure thing at this point in time, however, it bears watching as the morning commute on Tuesday morning could potentially be a slippery one if the precipitation comes down as freezing rain instead of snow.

FORECAST PRECIP. TYPE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
4km NAM MODEL SHOWING SLEET & SNOW MIX FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
SALMON COLOR = SLEET
BLUE = SNOW
GREEN = RAIN/POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN

Highs will STRUGGLE to hit 40ºF Tuesday afternoon with wind chills expected to be in the 20s for the majority of the day. Wind chills late Monday night and early Tuesday morning will easily drop into the TEENS! Hard freeze likely across the region by early Wednesday morning with all locations dropping into the low and middle 20s. Some low-lying locations may drop into the upper teens. Skies clear out for Wednesday, however, things will remain chilly with highs only expected to make the middle 40s, however, the sunshine will help to make it feel better. 

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