Thunderstorms on the way!

Good Afternoon Everybody! I just wanted to take a moment to write a brief blog on the heavy rainfall event that is likely to take shape this evening and through the overnight hours.

All the ingredients are coming together for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move through the region beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture, combined with upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond out in the Pacific and an approaching storm system and its attendant cold front will all work together to give us a 100% chance for storms beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. The heaviest activity, according to the latest run of the HRRR Model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) will arrive around, if not before, midnight for the far western Hill Country. The model is showing a strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing into the region. Storms that develop will have the potential to produce strong damaging winds and hail. That line of storms will move from west to east through the overnight hours and looks to arrive along the I-35 corridor around 3 a.m. Keep in mind, things may slow down or speed up. 

Forecasted Radar for 1 a.m. (Strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing through the Hill Country):

Given our risk for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of north, central, east, and south Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather this evening and overnight. Areas shaded in yellow are under the Slight Risk Category.

In addition, and of even greater concern, is the risk of flash flooding. The tropical air mass in place will assure that the storms will drop copious amounts of rainfall quickly. I'm expecting a good 1-3 inches of rain to fall area wide with some spots picking up as much as 4-5 inches of rain. 

The good news is that once the line of storms pushes through a clearing trend will take place for Thursday (Halloween) afternoon. Cooler and drier weather will arrive behind the front by Friday morning with lows expected to fall into the 40s and 50s. Beautiful weekend shaping up with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night under clear skies; mid 40s expected here in Austin. Out-lying areas will dip into the lower 40s. Clouds increase on Sunday ahead of our next storm system that will bring rain chances back to central Texas for the beginning of next week ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive next Wednesday. That front will have the potential to drop highs into the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s!!! 

Weekend Rain

TGIF Everybody! 

Gulf of Mexico moisture is beginning to stream back into central Texas. The area of high pressure that has been over the area for the past several days has shifted to our east. The clockwise flow around high pressure has allowed for southeasterly winds to return. Dew points that were in the 40's area wide yesterday are now approaching the 60 degree mark. As temperatures fall into the upper 50's and 60's area wide overnight they will meet up with the dew point temperature. When the temperature and dew point meet the humidity is at 100%. With this being mentioned, expect low clouds, areas of fog and drizzle, and spotty light rain showers to develop tonight and persist through the first half of Saturday. Saturday afternoon skies should turn partly sunny allowing for highs to make it into the upper 70's to near 80°F in spots. Spotty light rain showers possible throughout the day. 

As the main disturbance (upper level storm system) approaches the area late Saturday and into the early morning hours of Sunday, is when I'm expecting showers and thunderstorms to become likely. According to the latest high resolution forecast models, a complex of showers and storms, some on the strong side, will develop north of central Texas and push south into our area early Sunday morning. Rain should be gone by the time we head into late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

Forecast Radar at 12:00 a.m. Sunday morning: Big storms pushing into the northern Hill Country

Forecast Radar at 7:00 a.m. Sunday morning: Line of heavy showers and storms pushing through much of central Texas

This particular model is forecasting anywhere from 0.50 to as much as 3 inches of rain. The highest totals look to fall across the Hill Country; We will keep our fingers crossed.

GFS Model is showing a good 0.50 to as much as 2 inches of rain falling across the area over the weekend.

***Rain chances return to the area once again Tuesday evening, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week as another storm system and a stronger cold front approach the area***

Early Look at Halloween:

Halloween is next Thursday. Next Wednesday, according to the latest computer models looks to be rather stormy around a good chunk of the state of Texas as a cold front pushes through. Strong storms, possibly severe, are possible.

Halloween looks to start off cloudy, however, clear throughout the day, breezy, cooler and drier behind Wednesday's front. Highs look to be in the 70s with lows falling into the 50s late Halloween night. 

   

BIG Cold Front on the way!

Good Afternoon everybody and TGIF! We have some changes heading our way. Moisture is already beginning to stream back into the area at both the surface and middle layers of the atmosphere ahead of a strong cold front that is currently blasting through the Texas Panhandle. It is currently 39°F in Amarillo with a north wind howling at 30 mph putting wind chill values in the 20s! That mass of Canadian Air is heading south and will arrive in Austin around midnight, if not a little before. 

Ahead of the front the latest high resolution forecast models are forecasting scattered showers and storms to develop. I'm putting rain chances at 50% for this evening and tonight. Some of the storms that develop will be strong. Tonight's rain should not pose a flooding threat because the front will be moving so quickly.

HRRR (High Resolution Forecast Model) shows the front entering the northwestern Hill Country around 10:00 p.m. this evening with a skinny line of showers...streamer showers will develop ahead of the front across the I-35 corridor:

Behind the front temps will quickly fall from the upper 50s to middle 60s into the 40s with a strong north wind sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. We will wake up to temps in the mid and upper 40s along and east of the I-35 corridor with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the Hill Country. Very dry air will move in behind the front and should allow for a clear, beautiful blue sky on Saturday, however, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s area wide on a north wind. Temperatures will drop back into the 40s and 50s area wide Saturday night.

Hi-Res model clearly shows the sharp temperature contrast ahead and behind the front:

Wake Up Temperatures: You'll definitely need a jacket or sweater if you are heading out early Saturday

Heavy Rain & Much Cooler Weather

What a weekend it turned out to be! A good 4-6 inches of rain fell across a majority of the Austin Area with some spots picking up double that. Portions of west and southwest Austin received upwards of 8-12 inches of rainfall. Disturbances moving out of Mexico and rich tropical moisture in place allowed for the drenching, slow-moving thunderstorms to develop.

Lake Travis rose two feet from this weekend's rainfall, however, Lake Buchanan held steady. Hopefully this next round of rain will give areas north and west of Austin some higher rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals across Travis County:

Rainfall Totals across southeastern Central Texas:

Rainfall Totals across the Hill Country: 

It has been a showery and humid Monday across mainly areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Areas west have not seen much in the way of rainfall today. We are in a bit of a lull right now waiting for our next weather system to impact the area on Tuesday. A strong October cold front looks to move through the area late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Ahead of, and especially behind this frontal boundary, I'm expecting widespread areas of heavy tropical downpours to develop that would have the potential to drop another 1-3 inches of rainfall across the area. The difficulty in this forecast is trying to pin point where the heavy rain will set up. Latest high resolution forecast models have shifted the heaviest rains to fall just north of south central Texas, however, that does not mean we should let our guard down. A very moist, tropical atmosphere extending from the surface to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be forced to rise and precipitate as the cold front approaches the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. It is important to know that since the ground is so moist across a good portion of the area, especially right here in the Austin Metro Area, that additional rainfall will create flash flooding in a hurry. Please remember this motto, if you come across a flooded road way: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! It is not worth the risk. Not only do you put yourself in harm's way, you put those that have to come and rescue you in harm's way as well.

High Resolution NAM Model Forecast Rainfall Totals:

The low-level moisture is well in place thanks to southerly winds off of the Gulf, however, the mid and upper level moisture is thanks to Tropical Storm Octave located over the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Southwesterly winds aloft are carrying that tropical moisture over Mexico and into Texas. This type of set-up typically produces some of our heaviest rainfall events here in central Texas, as evidenced by Saturday night's torrential tropical downpours.

Tropical Storm Octave Moisture Plume: 

The cold front will sweep through the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday ushering in much colder air behind it. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 50s area wide by Wednesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Wednesday will have a hard time getting out of the 50s under a cloudy, showery sky. What a change!!! Wednesday looks to start off on the stormy side, however, by afternoon it should just be cloudy, chilly and breezy with on and off showers possible. 

2 p.m. Forecast Temperatures on Wednesday: In the 50s!!!

Highs will climb back into the 60s and 70s as we head into Thursday. Thursday looks to be dry before rain chances return to the area on Friday and Saturday. Rain is beginning to look likely across the area on Friday ahead of another disturbance.  

Wet Weekend

Hello everybody! What gorgeous weather we have been enjoying the past several days. Now that southerly winds have returned to the area ahead of an approaching storm system and cold front, moisture levels are on the increase. Latest high resolution forecast model for central Texas shows dew points near 70° to start the day on Friday. Remember, the higher the dew point, the more moisture is in the air. 

Dew Point Temperatures Friday Morning:

Increasing moisture levels at both the surface and aloft combined with several disturbances that will be passing over central Texas this weekend from the southwest will make showers and thunderstorms likely. As a cold front approaches the area next Tuesday, the threat for heavy rain will increase. 

Day by Day Forecast:

Friday: Cloudy, mild, and muggy AM in the 70s will give way to a partly sunny, warm, and muggy afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s area wide. There is a 30% chance for showers during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: 50% chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms; some of the rain may be heavy at times (especially during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating which helps to destabilize the atmosphere). Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s.

Sunday: 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms; some of the storms will produce heavy downpours. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s. 

How much rain are we talking?

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting a good 1-2 inches of rain to fall between Friday and the middle of next week across central Texas.

The latest GFS Forecast Model is suggesting just over 2 inches of rain for the Austin Area between Friday and the middle of next week.

COLD FRONT

A fairly strong cold front looks to move through the area next Tuesday. Behind the front skies will rapidly clear and drier and cooler air will invade central Texas on breezy northerly winds. Highs will be knocked down into the 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s for the middle/end of next week under mainly sunny/clear skies. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, heavy rain looks to be likely.

Front moving in Tuesday Afternoon:

The GFS Model has a good chunk of the state of Texas in the 40s by early Thursday morning of next week! 

COOL DOWN on the way!

Hello everybody! True fall weather is on its way! The much anticipated cold front is due to arrive in Austin early Saturday morning. Ahead of the front for Thursday and Friday expect cloudy, muggy, foggy, and drizzly mornings in the 70s which will give way to partly cloudy, steamy, and warm conditions during the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a 20% chance for rain on both Thursday and Friday with a 30% chance for showers as the front moves through the region on Saturday.

Behind the front on Saturday, north winds will kick up and MUCH drier and cooler air will invade the area from the north. Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday behind the front with lows falling into the 50s area wide by early Sunday morning. Some lingering cloud cover looks to be possible behind the front on Saturday, however, that will help it feel even cooler. Winds may gust as high as 25-30 mph behind the front.

GFS Model Showing the Front blowing in early Saturday Morning!!

Sunday looks to be an absolutely gorgeous day with highs only managing the 70s to near 80°F in a few locations under a clear, blue sky. Humidity will nearly be non-existent as dew points will likely fall into the 30s across the region. Keep in mind our dew point today has been in the 60s and lower 70s making it feel oppressively humid out there. 

Lows Sunday night will plummet into the lower 50s here in Austin with 40s expected in rural locations. Highs will gradually warm as we head into the beginning and middle of next week as southerly winds return. Earlier model runs were indicating a second, possibly stronger front next weekend, however, it is way too soon to say for sure if that will actually happen. 

Hurricane Season is not over, and believe it or not, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an impressive area of strong convection (thunderstorm activity) across the southern Gulf of Mexico. This cluster of storms is beginning to look like it is going to form into a tropical storm and push into the northeastern Gulf by Friday...too soon to say where it is going to make landfall, however, latest model runs show anywhere from the central Louisiana coast all the way to the western Florida peninsula to be in the cone of uncertainty. The approaching front and a large trough of low pressure over the central US will keep the disturbance away from Texas and push it north and east.

Visible Satellite Image of the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (Photo was taken earlier today):

GFS Model showing the system turning into a strong tropical storm and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Sunday morning: