Weekend Forecast & Beyond

Hello everybody! The weekend is almost here. Moisture levels are beginning to increase across the area today ahead of a weak cool front that will stall out just north of central Texas this weekend. This front will be the focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The best rain chances look to be north and west of Austin this weekend. I'm putting our chances for precipitation at 40% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. Highs will still be able to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend, however, lows will be coming up considerably from where they have been in the 50s and 60s into the 70s thanks to the very humid/moist Gulf of Mexico air that will be in place. Honestly, I'm not very excited about our rain chances this weekend. By no means is this going to be a repeat of wonderful rain event we received last Friday. 

Models keep the highest rainfall totals NORTH of central Texas along the frontal boundary:

 

Rain chances will begin to dwindle on Monday and continues will begin to dry out. Looking at the long range forecast, the GFS Model has been consistent in bringing us a true cold front come next weekend. This front looks to have the potential to bring us some good rainfall as well as some significantly cooler temperatures. Highs may only make the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Nice!!! Please keep in mind that this forecast is a ways out, however, it is beginning to look like cooler air is on the way.

GFS Model showing cold front moving through Texas next Friday:

Weekend Forecast:

Friday: Partly cloudy, mild and humid start in the 70s will give way to a partly cloudy, hot and humid afternoon with highs in the lower 90s. Thanks to the increased moisture, heat index values will climb to near the century mark.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy start will give way to a mostly cloudy warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances will increase throughout the day; 40% chance for showers and storms. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the 80s; there is a 30-40% chance for showers and storms. 

Drought Relief!!!

Finally! Some much needed rainfall. While this is not drought-ending rainfall, it is definitely drought-denting rainfall. Several locations across the Hill Country from Mason and Gillespie counties all the way east to western Travis County have picked up anywhere from 2-7 inches of rainfall. While most of that rain will soak into the ground, the run-off will find its way into the Highland Lakes. The highest rainfall total I can find so far is 6.98 inches of rainfall 8 miles northeast of the small town of Harper in Gillespie County (northwest of Fredericksburg). A solid 1-3 inches of rainfall has fallen across the Austin Metro Area with a weather station at Barton Creek and Loop 360 measuring just over 3 inches of rainfall!

Rainfall Totals from across central Texas as of 4:00 p.m. Friday: 

Where is all this wonderful rain coming from? Well, we can actually give thanks to three key ingredients. If you can believe it, rich tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean (remnants of Hurricane Manuel) that dropped copious rainfall amounts on western Mexico (including the Acapulco area) was pulled northeast towards Texas thanks to a dip in the jet stream across the central plains. That mid and upper level moisture combined with plenty of sticky Gulf of Mexico air and a late summer/early fall cold front are all working together to give us this wonderful rainfall event. Some of Austin's heaviest rainfall events have occurred due to this type of setup. The atmosphere is just so incredibly moist that it only takes a bit of lift for numerous showers and storms to develop.

Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Manuel (earlier this week):

 
 As the cold front (currently located just northwest of central Texas) continues to push towards our area rain will continue to develop...the front should clear most, if not all of Central Texas by noon Saturday allowing for a drying trend to take hold. Northerly winds behind the front along with moist grounds will keep highs in the 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine may return as early as Saturday afternoon for areas along and west of Interstate 35. We should see plenty of sun as we head into Saturday and much of next week as high pressure builds into the area behind the front. The lower humidity and clear skies will allow for comfortable mornings in the 60s starting as early as Sunday morning and continuing through early next week. Unfortunately, temps in the 90s will return for the start of next week, however, moisture levels are expected to be much lower than where they have been. 

Moisture levels (humidity) will begin to increase as we head into late next week and next weekend ahead of a possibly stronger cold front around October 2nd. 

Enjoy the rain and the slight cool down heading our way! Thankfully triple digits will not be back into the forecast until next year!

Light/moderate rain will continue on and off through the evening and into the overnight hours. I believe the heaviest rains are now going to be focused more so east of Austin and across southeast Texas.

Great Links: Just click on the words to go to the websites

LCRA Hydromet

Wundermap Radar

Just what the doctor ordered!

Hello everybody. It sure has been nice the past couple of days with the sporadic rain showers, clouds and in turn "cooler" temperatures! While we have been spoiled the past couple of days, Mother Nature is going to turn up the heat for Wednesday, and really crank up the heat for the end of the week and the weekend when highs are expected to climb back into the upper 90s area wide, with some spots reaching the triple digits. Now, if you have seen good rainfall amounts over the past couple of days, most likely you will not see triple digits, however, no matter how you look at it...95°F with a lot of humidity is not exactly better. 

The big and exciting news in the forecast is that long range models have been consistently forecasting a tropical disturbance (now located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula) to move into the Bay of Campeche (extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico) over the coming days. Right now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development, HOWEVER, they are forecasting that this system has a HIGH, 70% likelihood, or developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Will this system become a hurricane? It is too early to say right now, however, conditions are favorable for development. If this disturbance does in fact become a named system, the next name in line is Ingrid.

Current Position of the Tropical Disturbance:

Forecasted Position of the Tropical Disturbance by early next week:

High Resolution Model showing a tropical storm in south TX early next week:

Water temperatures are running a good 84-86°F across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Warm, moist air over the Gulf feeds tropical systems. Another key factor in determining if a tropical system will be able to develop is wind shear. If winds are too strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere...clouds that develop will literally be blown down by the strong winds. Thankfully, it is looking like wind shear will not be hindrance to development.

Current Surface Water Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico: GREEN represents water temperature of 84-86°F

The latest run of the GFS model wants to bring this system into south Texas by early next week. Too soon to say whether this system will develop into a hurricane, however, a strong Tropical Storm is not out of the question for early next week in deep south Texas. The model then takes that system north into central Texas where it would likely dump several inches of rain on central Texas. Some places may even possibly see as much as a foot (12 inches) of rain!! That would be incredible for our drought situation. Over the next 16 days, the GFS model is forecasting around 5 inches of rainfall for the Austin Metro Area.

Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday:

High Resolution Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday for Texas:

Of course, please keep in mind that this is a ways out and things are likely to change, however, it is a good sign to see the forecast model being so consistent. With the clouds and rain, highs would be held down in the 70s and 80s for much of next week if all works out. How great would that be? 

I will be watching this disturbance closely and will likely be posting more on this event as more information comes in and things actually start to develop. Remember, you can always follow me on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center.

You can watch the development of this system and get all of the latest information posted by the National Hurricane Center, along with satellite imagery by clicking HERE.

Persistent Heat/Slight Rain Chances

Hello everybody. I hope you all are having a great start to your Labor Day Weekend. Thanks to a persistent upper level ridge of high pressure and dry air aloft, temps were once again able to climb well into the triple digits again on Saturday afternoon. We officially climbed to 104ºF at Camp Mabry on Saturday thankfully missing the record high of 107ºF set back in the very hot summer of 2000. 

With high pressure in control of our weather again on Sunday, I'm expecting another very HOT day with highs in the 101-105ºF range area wide. Some high resolution forecast models were indicating the possibility of scattered showers and storms entering portions of central Texas Sunday evening. I think that particular model is being a bit too aggressive with our rainfall chances. Most, if not all of the shower and storm activity that flares up on Sunday, should stay north of central Texas. 

Believe it or not, the upper level disturbance that gave us some rainfall earlier this week is actually going to be making a return visit to the area by Monday, therefore, I'm putting in a 20% chance for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on Monday. Keep in mind, storms that develop this time of year in a hot atmosphere tend to produce very gusty winds. 

Even though we do have a chance for rain, I would not get too excited about it. Those that do see rain, if they see any at at all, should consider themselves very lucky. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is predicting anywhere from a trace to as much as 0.25 inches of rainfall across central Texas over the next 5 days. This map is put together by taking the average of many different forecast models. 

5 Day Rainfall Forecast:

Here's a look at that upper level disturbance on water vapor imagery. The areas in orange represent very dry air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...areas in gray represent areas with slightly higher moisture content.

Temperatures will be slow to cool off through next week with highs staying very close to the century mark. Temperatures may begin to moderate a bit as we head into the week after next, however, by moderate I mean go down into the 90s. Long range forecast models not showing any hints at fall-like weather just yet. Hang in there, fall is not too far off. I'm so looking forward to the beautiful fall weather here in central Texas. Sunny skies with highs in the 70s in the afternoon and 40s at night.