Cooler Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion:

Pacific cold front moved through the region this morning bringing with it gusty west northwesterly winds and significantly drier air. Not a lot of chilly air behind this front, but a front moving through the area tomorrow will bring in some chillier weather for Wednesday-Friday of this week before a stronger cold front and an upper level storm system bring some much colder weather into the area for the upcoming weekend along with some good chances for widespread rainfall. Highs may struggle to hit 50°F on Saturday. 

Tonight: 49° | Mostly clear & chilly

Tuesday: 78° | Mostly sunny & warm, cold front quietly slips through in the PM

Tuesday Night: 45° | Mostly clear & chilly with a north breeze

Wednesday: 65° | Sunny & cool

Wednesday Night: 39° | Clear & cold (light freeze possible in out-lying and/or low-lying spots)

Thursday: 65° | Chilly start, mostly sunny & cool afternoon

Thursday Night: 44° | Partly cloudy & chilly

Friday: 63° | Mostly cloudy & cool

Friday Night: 47° | Cloudy with rain developing

Saturday: 50° | Chilly & Rainy (Pacific Northwest type of day)

Saturday Night: 44° | Chilly & Rainy

Sunday: 53° | Cloudy with showers

Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday

Forecast Discussion:

After a chilly fall weekend, temperatures are quickly climbing back into the 70s area wide on a breezy southerly wind. That breezy southerly wind has developed in response to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure to our west. Surface low pressure developing to our north and surface high pressure shifting to our east are giving us the southerly winds. The return of southerly winds has already allowed for surface dew points to rebound into the upper 40s and 50s area wide compared to the 30s we saw over the weekend. The dew point temperature is a direct indicator of the amount of moisture in our air; the higher the dew point, the higher the moisture and vice versa.

Dew points will be soaring into the 60s by Tuesday morning making things feel noticeably more uncomfortable.

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday/Tuesday Evening:

Increasing moisture, an approaching upper level trough, and a surface cold front will work together to bring us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, especially Tuesday evening. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather Tuesday evening. The biggest risk from the storms that develop will be strong, gusty winds.

Behind the storms, a cooler and drier air miss will move back into the area and set us up for several pleasant weather days and what looks to be a very comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 60s to near 70°F across the area and lows in the 40s.

Severe Weather Risk Area:

Long range forecast models are indicating a potential shift to a colder weather pattern by the end of the month and into December. We still have plenty of time to monitor that. 

Cold Front Friday

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The beautiful weather we experienced over the weekend is set to continue for the majority of this week. Drier air moving in at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere this afternoon and a building ridge of high pressure will result in a stretch of sunny and well above normal conditions through Thursday. Friday will be a transition day to cooler than normal weather for the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a strong cold front. Our next shot at rainfall arrives on Friday with the cold front.

November Climate Data: (Austin-Camp Mabry)

Average High: 71°F

Average Low: 51°F

Average monthly temperature (highs & lows combined): 61°F

Average Precipitation: 2.96 inches

Well Above Normal Temperatures:

Dry air and a building ridge of high pressure will give us a stretch of well above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s Tuesday-Thursday. While it will be warmer than "normal" for this time of year, record highs do not look to be in jeopardy.

Current Record Highs: TEMP | YEAR SET

Tuesday: 90° | 1951

Wednesday: 87° | 1938

Thursday: 86° | 1938 

Drought Update:

The latest drought monitor, released last Thursday, November, 8^th, shows that we are in pretty good shape across the area. Last week’s welcome and much-needed rain helped to temporarily ease drought conditions across the area. Much of the area is considered to be drought-free (indicated by white shading). Yellow areas represent abnormally dry conditions. Tan areas represent moderate drought. Orange areas represent severe drought. 

Friday’s Cold Front | Significantly COOLER Weekend:

As of right now, the front is looking to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As mentioned above, there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the cold front crosses the area. No severe and/or hazardous weather is expected at this time. A sharp wind shift to the north behind the front will usher in a significantly cooler & drier Canadian air mass into the state. This cooler air mass will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s over the weekend with lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s really going to feel like fall! Most locations will escape a light freeze this time, but some of the lowest-lying valleys across the area may receive a light freeze. Temperatures will stay well above freezing in Austin. A warming trend will then take us into Thanksgiving week.

SEVEN DAY FORECAST GRAPHIC:  

Cooler Weather On The Way!

Forecast Discussion:

One more above average day in store for central Texas before some refreshing changes arrive on Thursday in the form of a cold front and some low end rain chances. We officially climbed to 93°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry missing today’s record high of 94°F set all the way back in 1947 by one degree. The airport missed their record high of 93°F set back in 1993 by one degree as well topping out at 92°F this afternoon. Keep in mind, “normal” for this time of year is closer to 82°F.

Wednesday's Outlook:

One more day of summer-like heat with temperatures in the 90s on your Wednesday before changes arrive. Afternoon highs Wednesday may stay a degree or two “cooler” thanks to the likelihood of morning clouds hanging on a bit longer. Given a more moist southerly flow, morning sprinkles and/or light rain showers will not be out of the question with a lingering chance of an isolated/widely scattered afternoon rain shower or brief thunderstorm along and east of the IH-35 corridor.

Thursday Morning Cold Front:

The much anticipated cold front is set to arrive Thursday morning with a slight chance for a few brief showers. The main story behind the front on Thursday will be the breezy/gusty north winds and the significantly cooler conditions. North winds on Thursday are forecast to be sustained out of the north between 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 25-35 mph possible. Given the passage of the cold front, highs on Thursday will only manage the upper 70s/lower 80s across the area.

Fantastic Weekend:

Much cooler and drier conditions will settle into the area Friday through the upcoming weekend with afternoon highs expected to be in the upper 70s/lower 80s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s. Lower 50s expected right in Austin Saturday morning. It’s going to feel great!

Here’s a look at my latest SEVEN DAY FORECAST:

Summer-like Heat, Cold Front Next Thursday

Today's Discussion:

Much above normal temperatures. After starting the day at a mild 71°F, afternoon sunshine and southerly winds allowed for the high to top out at 91°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry in Austin. Today’s recorded high was not all that far away from today’s record high temperature of 95°F set just last year. Normal for this time of year is closer to 82°F.

October Heat:

Summer-like conditions and temperatures are forecast to persist through Wednesday of next week ahead of the arrival of our next cold front set to move through the area on Thursday. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows near 70°F. Late night/morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy afternoons through the middle of next week.

Rain Chances:

Slight rain chances enter the forecast as early as Wednesday and persist through Thursday afternoon for the region as the cold front approaches and moves through the area. Significant rainfall is not likely with this next cold front.

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation: [over the next 7 days]

Beautiful Formula One Weekend:

Beautiful fall weather (significantly cooler & drier air) will infiltrate the area behind Thursday’s cold frontal passage and set us up for what looks to be an absolutely stellar Formula One Weekend with afternoon highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s & 50s…it is going to feel great! Other than some passing high-level clouds from time to time, skies will be mainly sunny/clear. 

Long Range Outlook: 

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Temperature/Precipitation Outlook [valid October 21-25, 2016]

Temperature: Below normal temperatures expected for central Texas October 21-25

Precipitation: Below normal precipitation expected for central Texas October 21-25

Eyes on Matthew

Forecast Discussion:
Hello everybody. I hope all of you are having a wonderful weekend thus far. We have been enjoying an absolutely beautiful stretch of fall weather this past week behind two cold fronts that moved through the area this week. The first front arrived on Monday with a second, slightly stronger cold front to follow it on Thursday. Northerly surface winds have allowed for the drier and cooler air mass to remain in place. That will be changing as we head into the new week. Southerly winds will return as early as Monday and allow for muggy Gulf Air to return to the area for Tuesday-Thursday ahead of our next cold front that is forecast to arrive on Friday. Significant rain chances are not in the forecast between now and next weekend. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out during the coming week (Wednesday-Friday time period).

Tonight's Forecast: Widespread clouds and scattered sprinkles have kept temperatures mainly in the 70s this afternoon with a few locations just now beginning to touch and/or exceed the 80°F mark...clouds will continue to push east overnight setting us up for a mostly clear & cool night with lows dipping into the 50s and lower 60s area wide.

Sunday's Forecast: Mainly sunny & warmer with highs rebounding into the middle to upper 80s, still nice and dry!

Hurricane Matthew:
Latest Numbers on Hurricane Matthew (as of 4pm CDT)
Center Location: 13.5 N | 73.4 W
Maximum Sustained Wind: 150 mph | Gusting to 185 mph
Movement: NW at 5 mph
Minimum Pressure: 940 millibars (mb)

While things are relatively quiet for us here in central Texas, it's a whole lot different for folks in the Caribbean. Category 4 Hurricane Matthew is churning just north of the Colombian Coast and is forecast to track north and maintain its intensity as it approaches Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, followed by Cuba Monday into Tuesday and eventually into the Bahamas Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Matthew has "weakened" slightly from last night when it was upgraded to a category 5 storm, the strongest categorical strength with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The last category 5 storm to affect the Atlantic Basin was Hurricane Felix back in 2007. Matthew is proving to be a very dynamic and dangerous storm. Matthew has undergone rapid intensification...he was only a category one storm on Thursday and last night he was upgraded to a category 5! Very warm ocean waters and available moisture. For an in depth analysis of Hurricane Matthew click HERE. Folks along the eastern seaboard will need to keep a very close eye on Matthew's forecast track.

Latest Forecast Track from the National Hurricane Center: 
Click HERE to access the National Hurricane Center's Website

Latest Visible Satellite Image:

Showers & Storms Possible Tomorrow

Forecast Discussion:
Good Evening Folks and TGIF! Another hot & humid day in Austin today with a high of 95°F, but it felt hotter than 100°F thanks to the soupy air mass in place. If you're heading out on this Friday evening, it's just going to be a warm and humid evening with overnight lows falling into the middle to upper 70s by morning with areas of low clouds likely forming.

Saturday:
As a trough of low pressure (dip in the upper level jet stream) crosses the Plains tomorrow, a relatively weak surface "cold" front will be pushed south into central Texas. As this front interacts with the warm, moist air over the region scattered showers and storms will be possible. I'm putting rain chances at 50% for midday through mid afternoon, with rain chances coming down into the evening hours. Hopefully the weather will cooperate for the Longhorns Game tomorrow evening. If the front moves through the area earlier in the day, there will be less of a threat for lightning during the evening hours. A benefit to the rain/clouds may be some cooler late afternoon/evening temps.

**Storms that develop on Saturday will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours, dangerous cloud to ground lightning and potentially some gusty winds. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. Overall, less than a quarter of an inch of rain is expected for most areas, however, locations that potentially see a heavier thundershower/storm may get up to an inch of rain.

Unfortunately, this front is not going to do much to cool us down, but every little bit helps...

***Keep an eye to the sky and always remember to move indoors into safety when and if the weather threatens***