Roller Coaster Week

Forecast Discussion:
A weak cold front moved through the area during the early morning hours and helped to clear away the areas of dense fog we experienced across the area late last night and early this morning. Much drier air, as evidenced by dew points in the 40s, has also moved in behind the front. The front is washing out to our south. Afternoon highs under a mainly sunny sky will climb into the 60s. Lows tonight will drop back down into the 40s and 50s under a mainly clear sky. Areas of fog will be possible.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will soar into the lower 70s under a partly cloudy sky. Another cold front will traverse the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday allowing for cooler conditions to settle back into the area for Wednesday and especially Thursday as stronger cold air advection (horizontal transport of air) occurs. Highs Wednesday drop back into the 60s, highs on Thursday drop back even further into the 50s. Thursday's chill will be brief as southerly winds quickly return by Friday ahead of a strong storm system that will be traversing from west to east across the center of the country. With the return of southerly winds highs will rebound into the 70s on Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front that looks to arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Some light rain showers and/or drizzle cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday as a weak overrunning pattern sets up over the area (warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over a cooler air mass at the surface).

Saturday night's cold front will have the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season...temperature trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next several days.

Forecast Temperature Map for this coming Saturday at Noon across South Central U.S.

Rain Ending...Cold Coming

Rain coming to an end…

Good Afternoon Folks! Our rainy stretch of weather is closing in on its final hours as the upper level low pressure system responsible for the rain is beginning to approach and move across south central Texas. Drier and more stable air will filter into the area on the backside of this upper level low setting the stage for clearing skies and some sunshine for your Tuesday.

Rainfall Totals (as of 12:30pm Monday):

(National Weather Service & LCRA Reporting Stations)

Travis County

·         Camp Mabry | 2.49 inches

·         Austin Bergstrom International Airport | 3.01 inches

·         LCRA Redbud Center | 2.65 inches

·         Barton Creek at Loop 360 | 2.90 inches

·         Manor | 3.05 inches

·         Lakeway | 2.68 inches

·         Lago Vista | 2.11 inches

The Hill Country received 1-3 inches of rain on average with the heaviest totals falling across Gillespie County. Areas south and east of Austin received quite a bit of rain as well with numerous locations receiving between 3-5 inches. Bastrop County was the winner in terms of rainfall accumulation with 4-6 inches.

Arctic Cold Front (First of the Season)

Now that the rain is beginning to come to an end across the area, our attention is quickly shifting to a strong cold front that will be blowing through the area late Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. This front is bringing the coldest air of the season, so far! Highs expected to be in the 60s on Tuesday, 50s/60s on Wednesday, but by Thursday highs will not get out of the 40s! Gusty north winds on Thursday behind the front will produce wind chills in the 20s/30s all day long. There is a slight chance for some sprinkles/very light rain on Thursday behind the front, and there’s even the chance for a flurry or two across the northwestern Hill Country (no accumulation expected…very low chance). Lows Thursday night into Friday will plummet into the 20s and lower 30s area wide. We are likely to receive our first official freeze of the season in Austin Thursday night/Friday morning.

Highs Friday will once again struggle back into the 40s before a warming trend takes us into the weekend with highs rebounding into the 50s on Saturday and close to 70°F by Sunday.

I will continue to monitor the latest weather trends and update as necessary… 

Rain to continue...

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Rain, heavy at times, will remain in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend and into the first half of the day on Monday as the upper level storm system currently located south of Arizona takes its time approaching the state of Texas. This overrunning pattern, warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over the cool air mass at the surface will continue for the remainder of the weekend locking in the wet and chilly conditions. Overnight lows tonight will remain steady in the upper 40s and lower 50s area wide with highs on Sunday struggling to get out of the lower 50s area wide.

Rainfall accumulation, so far, has been heaviest to the south of the Austin Metro Area. 

Within the past 24 hours this is how much rain has fallen:

•          Camp Mabry has received 1.17 inches of rain.
•          Austin Bergstrom International Airport has received 1.48 inches of rain.
•          Georgetown Municipal Airport has received 1.50 inches of rain.
•          San Antonio International Airport has received 3.88 inches of rain.

***An additional 1-3 inches of rain will certainly be possible by the time rains come to an end sometime Monday***

While severe weather is not anticipated over the next couple of days, minor flooding may become an issue in areas that typically see flooding concerns. Flooding concerns look to be highest south and east of the Austin Metro. Lightning cannot be ruled out within the heaviest of the rainfall activity as well as the possibility for some sub-severe (small) hail.

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south & east of Austin***

With that being noted, the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office has decided to issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south and east of Austin. This watch includes BANDERA, BASTROP, LEE, MEDINA, BEXAR, COMAL, GUADALUPE, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, WILSON, GONZALES, AND LAVACA COUNTIES from 10pm CST tonight through late Sunday evening. An additional 1-2 inches of rain with isolated amounts of up to 4 inches of rain are possible in those locations.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY

Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate that some very cold Arctic Air will be heading south into the lower 48 this coming week. As of right now, the Arctic front looks to arrive in central Texas sometime during the day on Wednesday. If models continue to verify, it looks like all of central Texas will see freezing temperatures behind this front, even right in Austin. Luckily, freezing precipitation does NOT look to be an issue with this particular cold front.

Forecast Lows Friday, December 9, 2016 [GFS Model]

Chilly, Wet Weekend Ahead

***WET, CHILLY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS***

An upper level area of low pressure currently developing over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico will slowly be pushing east towards Texas over the next several days. In addition to creating lift, or rising air, over the area, the approaching upper level low has already shifted mid and upper level winds out of the south and southwest on top of the cool, northeasterly winds at the surface (where we live, work, and play). This weather pattern is known as overrunning. Warmer, moister southerly winds are being forced to ride up and over the cooler air mass in place at the surface. This overrunning pattern is quite common across south central Texas during the fall, winter, and spring seasons.

Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate that ALL locations across the area from the Hill Country to the coastal plains will be receiving rain in the coming days. As of right now, it appears that the heaviest rainfall totals will occur along and especially east of the I-35 corridor. Latest forecast rainfall projections are indicating as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over the next several days (Friday-Monday) for areas along and east of I-35 with areas west of I-35 receiving 1-2 inches of rain. While heavy rainfall is certainly possible across the area over the next several days, the majority of the rain will be in the light to moderate category and spaced out over several days, therefore, flash flooding does NOT appear to be a concern for the area. However, minor flooding is certainly possible in flood prone areas/locations. If you have travel plans to southeast Texas, rainfall accumulation has the potential to be higher in those areas with some locations potentially receiving as much as 4-6 inches of rain.

Thanks to the clouds, rain, and northeasterly surface winds across the area, temperatures will remain on the chilly side over the upcoming weekend with highs expected to be in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Thankfully we will not have to worry about any frozen precipitation. Temperatures will remain well above freezing.

The upper level low is forecast to clear the area on Monday and set us up for clearing conditions by Tuesday of next week ahead of a strong cold front that looks to arrive on Wednesday. This front has the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season. More to come on that in future posts.

Bottom line, keep the umbrellas and the rain jackets handy over the upcoming weekend and drive safely and cautiously on area roadways.

Cooler Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion:

Pacific cold front moved through the region this morning bringing with it gusty west northwesterly winds and significantly drier air. Not a lot of chilly air behind this front, but a front moving through the area tomorrow will bring in some chillier weather for Wednesday-Friday of this week before a stronger cold front and an upper level storm system bring some much colder weather into the area for the upcoming weekend along with some good chances for widespread rainfall. Highs may struggle to hit 50°F on Saturday. 

Tonight: 49° | Mostly clear & chilly

Tuesday: 78° | Mostly sunny & warm, cold front quietly slips through in the PM

Tuesday Night: 45° | Mostly clear & chilly with a north breeze

Wednesday: 65° | Sunny & cool

Wednesday Night: 39° | Clear & cold (light freeze possible in out-lying and/or low-lying spots)

Thursday: 65° | Chilly start, mostly sunny & cool afternoon

Thursday Night: 44° | Partly cloudy & chilly

Friday: 63° | Mostly cloudy & cool

Friday Night: 47° | Cloudy with rain developing

Saturday: 50° | Chilly & Rainy (Pacific Northwest type of day)

Saturday Night: 44° | Chilly & Rainy

Sunday: 53° | Cloudy with showers

Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday

Forecast Discussion:

After a chilly fall weekend, temperatures are quickly climbing back into the 70s area wide on a breezy southerly wind. That breezy southerly wind has developed in response to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure to our west. Surface low pressure developing to our north and surface high pressure shifting to our east are giving us the southerly winds. The return of southerly winds has already allowed for surface dew points to rebound into the upper 40s and 50s area wide compared to the 30s we saw over the weekend. The dew point temperature is a direct indicator of the amount of moisture in our air; the higher the dew point, the higher the moisture and vice versa.

Dew points will be soaring into the 60s by Tuesday morning making things feel noticeably more uncomfortable.

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday/Tuesday Evening:

Increasing moisture, an approaching upper level trough, and a surface cold front will work together to bring us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, especially Tuesday evening. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather Tuesday evening. The biggest risk from the storms that develop will be strong, gusty winds.

Behind the storms, a cooler and drier air miss will move back into the area and set us up for several pleasant weather days and what looks to be a very comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 60s to near 70°F across the area and lows in the 40s.

Severe Weather Risk Area:

Long range forecast models are indicating a potential shift to a colder weather pattern by the end of the month and into December. We still have plenty of time to monitor that. 

Cold Front Friday

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The beautiful weather we experienced over the weekend is set to continue for the majority of this week. Drier air moving in at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere this afternoon and a building ridge of high pressure will result in a stretch of sunny and well above normal conditions through Thursday. Friday will be a transition day to cooler than normal weather for the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a strong cold front. Our next shot at rainfall arrives on Friday with the cold front.

November Climate Data: (Austin-Camp Mabry)

Average High: 71°F

Average Low: 51°F

Average monthly temperature (highs & lows combined): 61°F

Average Precipitation: 2.96 inches

Well Above Normal Temperatures:

Dry air and a building ridge of high pressure will give us a stretch of well above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s Tuesday-Thursday. While it will be warmer than "normal" for this time of year, record highs do not look to be in jeopardy.

Current Record Highs: TEMP | YEAR SET

Tuesday: 90° | 1951

Wednesday: 87° | 1938

Thursday: 86° | 1938 

Drought Update:

The latest drought monitor, released last Thursday, November, 8^th, shows that we are in pretty good shape across the area. Last week’s welcome and much-needed rain helped to temporarily ease drought conditions across the area. Much of the area is considered to be drought-free (indicated by white shading). Yellow areas represent abnormally dry conditions. Tan areas represent moderate drought. Orange areas represent severe drought. 

Friday’s Cold Front | Significantly COOLER Weekend:

As of right now, the front is looking to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As mentioned above, there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the cold front crosses the area. No severe and/or hazardous weather is expected at this time. A sharp wind shift to the north behind the front will usher in a significantly cooler & drier Canadian air mass into the state. This cooler air mass will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s over the weekend with lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s really going to feel like fall! Most locations will escape a light freeze this time, but some of the lowest-lying valleys across the area may receive a light freeze. Temperatures will stay well above freezing in Austin. A warming trend will then take us into Thanksgiving week.

SEVEN DAY FORECAST GRAPHIC: