Tropical Storm Harvey | Sunday Evening Update

The Latest on Harvey

Hurricane Harvey Approaching the Texas Coast (Thursday-Friday)

GIF above courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

As of 10 PM CDT, Harvey is still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Harvey’s center of circulation (as of 10 PM) is located in between Edna and Port Lavaca (about 20-25 miles east of Victoria) and is inching closer and closer to the Texas Coast at 3 mph.

Harvey’s slight shift east and southeast is allowing for decreasing rainfall rates across the I-35 corridor as drier and more stable air moves in from the north on the western side of Harvey. This is good news for folks along the I-35 corridor, but bad news for folks across eastern sections of central Texas and southeast Texas where heavy tropical rain bands continue to regenerate and spiral into those already water-logged areas. The persistent rain that we have been experiencing all weekend long will become scattered on Monday and significantly lighter. The heaviest rain threat will continue to be focused across southeast Texas and the Houston Metro Area.

The latest official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center does show Harvey’s center of circulation moving back over the Gulf of Mexico sometime Monday before making a second landfall south of the Houston Metro Area (potentially in between Lake Jackson and Galveston), before tracking north through the Houston Metro Area as upper level steering conditions become favorable to pull Harvey north and out of the state of Texas by late Thursday into Friday. Check out the forecast graphic below for more detail (click/tap to make larger).

 Rainfall Totals as of 10 PM CDT Sunday Evening (past 48 hours)

Central Texas

Travis County

Camp Mabry | 7.33 inches

Austin Bergstrom International Airport | 10.42 inches

Lakeway | 4.60 inches

Jollyville | 6.64 inches

Bull Creek at Loop 360 | 6.33 inches

LCRA Redbud Center | 7.43 inches

Manor | 9.41 inches

Elroy | 12.83 inches

Hays County

Buda | 11.30 inches

Kyle | 8.79 inches

Driftwood | 7.38 inches

Bexar County

San Antonio International Airport | 2.01 inches

Bastrop County

Colorado River at Bastrop | 16.11 inches

Cedar Creek | 13.81 inches

Smithville | 21.86 inches

Fayette County

La Grange | 21 inches

Muldoon | 21.12 inches

Southeast Texas

Harris County

Houston Intercontinental Airport | 25.57 inches

Houston Hobby Airport | 25.86 inches

Observed Peak Wind Gusts/Rainfall Totals

Courtesy of the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office

Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey Update

Impacts on central/south central Texas

I’m really concerned about 3 things for central/south central Texas (Austin/San Antonio Metro Areas)

• Dangerous/potentially deadly historical rainfall accumulation/flash flooding 
• Strong, gusty winds that will likely bring power outages
• A few tropical tornadoes possible

As of 1:00 PM CDT Friday afternoon, the eye of category 2 Hurricane Harvey is currently located 65 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, TX and moving northwest at 10 mph…maximum sustained winds as of the 1 PM CDT update from the National Hurricane Center were sustained at 110 mph gusting to 130 mph.

Per the 1 PM CDT Update from the National Hurricane Center, Harvey is still expected to make landfall as a major category three hurricane with winds sustained at 120 mph gusting to 150 mph late tonight into early Saturday morning most likely somewhere in between Corpus Christi and Port O’Connor. Instead of moving through quickly, Harvey is going to move slightly inland or hug the coast through the weekend. This will only work to exacerbate flooding and storm surge concerns for coastal areas and inland areas well away from Harvey’s center. Hurricane Force Winds (74 mph +) currently extend outward up to 35 miles from Harvey’s center, and tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extend outward up to 140 miles per hour.

Latest Visible Satellite Image of Harvey (NASA GOES-16)

Latest Doppler Radar Imagery

Counties shaded in pink along the coast are under a TORNADO WATCH until 2 AM CDT Saturday Morning

Latest Forecast Track from the National Hurricane Center

Projected Rainfall Accumulation from Harvey through Tuesday

Local Statement on Hurricane Harvey from the NWS Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office as of 1:31 PM CDT

Current Watches and/or Warnings

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atascosa, Bastrop, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays, Lavaca, and Wilson counties until further notice.

Harvey is still moving slowly northwestward in the Gulf of Mexico,
currently as a strong category 2 hurricane, and continuing to
strengthen as it approaches the Texas coastline. This northwestward
movement is expected to continue and Harvey should make landfall
Saturday morning. Confidence remains high in a major rainfall event
taking place across much of South Central Texas, in addition to some
locations closer to the coast experiencing hurricane force and tropical
storm force winds.

At this stage, a life-threatening and catastrophic heavy rainfall
event appears imminent for much of South Central Texas east of
Interstate 35 and Interstate 37. This could lead to significant flash
flooding across these areas. Average storm total rainfall amounts of
10 to 20 inches are expected east of Interstate 35 and Interstate
37 today through Tuesday. Isolated higher amounts in excess of
25 inches are possible near and south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

For the Interstate 35 corridor and the eastern Hill Country, including
the cities of San Antonio and Austin 6 to 12 inches are forecast with
isolated higher amounts.

Harvey is expected to stall or move very slowly over the area. With
these forecasted rainfall amounts catastrophic river flooding is also
very likely east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 10 in the
Colorado, Guadalupe, and San Antonio river basins.

Additionally, hurricane force winds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible
for the counties within the Hurricane Warning. 40 to 50 mph winds with
some gusts to 60 mph, in the tropical rain bands, will be possible for
areas within the Tropical Storm Warning including San Antonio and San
Marcos. The Austin area could see winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
40mph within rain bands. The timing of these winds look to arrive
Friday night through Saturday morning. There is a low risk of brief
tornadoes east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 10 Friday
evening into the weekend associated with tropical rain bands.