Cooler Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion:

Pacific cold front moved through the region this morning bringing with it gusty west northwesterly winds and significantly drier air. Not a lot of chilly air behind this front, but a front moving through the area tomorrow will bring in some chillier weather for Wednesday-Friday of this week before a stronger cold front and an upper level storm system bring some much colder weather into the area for the upcoming weekend along with some good chances for widespread rainfall. Highs may struggle to hit 50°F on Saturday. 

Tonight: 49° | Mostly clear & chilly

Tuesday: 78° | Mostly sunny & warm, cold front quietly slips through in the PM

Tuesday Night: 45° | Mostly clear & chilly with a north breeze

Wednesday: 65° | Sunny & cool

Wednesday Night: 39° | Clear & cold (light freeze possible in out-lying and/or low-lying spots)

Thursday: 65° | Chilly start, mostly sunny & cool afternoon

Thursday Night: 44° | Partly cloudy & chilly

Friday: 63° | Mostly cloudy & cool

Friday Night: 47° | Cloudy with rain developing

Saturday: 50° | Chilly & Rainy (Pacific Northwest type of day)

Saturday Night: 44° | Chilly & Rainy

Sunday: 53° | Cloudy with showers

Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday

Forecast Discussion:

After a chilly fall weekend, temperatures are quickly climbing back into the 70s area wide on a breezy southerly wind. That breezy southerly wind has developed in response to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure to our west. Surface low pressure developing to our north and surface high pressure shifting to our east are giving us the southerly winds. The return of southerly winds has already allowed for surface dew points to rebound into the upper 40s and 50s area wide compared to the 30s we saw over the weekend. The dew point temperature is a direct indicator of the amount of moisture in our air; the higher the dew point, the higher the moisture and vice versa.

Dew points will be soaring into the 60s by Tuesday morning making things feel noticeably more uncomfortable.

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday/Tuesday Evening:

Increasing moisture, an approaching upper level trough, and a surface cold front will work together to bring us a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, especially Tuesday evening. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather Tuesday evening. The biggest risk from the storms that develop will be strong, gusty winds.

Behind the storms, a cooler and drier air miss will move back into the area and set us up for several pleasant weather days and what looks to be a very comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 60s to near 70°F across the area and lows in the 40s.

Severe Weather Risk Area:

Long range forecast models are indicating a potential shift to a colder weather pattern by the end of the month and into December. We still have plenty of time to monitor that. 

Cold Front Friday

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The beautiful weather we experienced over the weekend is set to continue for the majority of this week. Drier air moving in at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere this afternoon and a building ridge of high pressure will result in a stretch of sunny and well above normal conditions through Thursday. Friday will be a transition day to cooler than normal weather for the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a strong cold front. Our next shot at rainfall arrives on Friday with the cold front.

November Climate Data: (Austin-Camp Mabry)

Average High: 71°F

Average Low: 51°F

Average monthly temperature (highs & lows combined): 61°F

Average Precipitation: 2.96 inches

Well Above Normal Temperatures:

Dry air and a building ridge of high pressure will give us a stretch of well above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s Tuesday-Thursday. While it will be warmer than "normal" for this time of year, record highs do not look to be in jeopardy.

Current Record Highs: TEMP | YEAR SET

Tuesday: 90° | 1951

Wednesday: 87° | 1938

Thursday: 86° | 1938 

Drought Update:

The latest drought monitor, released last Thursday, November, 8^th, shows that we are in pretty good shape across the area. Last week’s welcome and much-needed rain helped to temporarily ease drought conditions across the area. Much of the area is considered to be drought-free (indicated by white shading). Yellow areas represent abnormally dry conditions. Tan areas represent moderate drought. Orange areas represent severe drought. 

Friday’s Cold Front | Significantly COOLER Weekend:

As of right now, the front is looking to arrive during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As mentioned above, there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the cold front crosses the area. No severe and/or hazardous weather is expected at this time. A sharp wind shift to the north behind the front will usher in a significantly cooler & drier Canadian air mass into the state. This cooler air mass will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s over the weekend with lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s really going to feel like fall! Most locations will escape a light freeze this time, but some of the lowest-lying valleys across the area may receive a light freeze. Temperatures will stay well above freezing in Austin. A warming trend will then take us into Thanksgiving week.

SEVEN DAY FORECAST GRAPHIC: